Monday, January 23, 2006

News flash!

Seahawks to win Super Bowl, local blogger predicts.

Everybody and their mothers are picking the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. Reasons given are as diverse as gut feelings, destiny, star alignment, and it being a nice thing for Jerome Bettis. While all of this is compelling evidence, I think this game will boil down to two key questions:

Will the Steelers' defense be able to stop the Seahawks' offense for four quarters? The answer is probably not. The Steelers' defense, as a unit, is very good, but not as good as Seattle's offense is. A lot of idiots say that if you stop Shaun Alexander, Seattle's offense is suddenly vulnerable. But that only works if you have thirteen defenders on the field, because Seattle has a very potent passing game, and Matt Hasselbeck is about a million times more mobile than sports chatterers realize. He rushed for a touchdown against the Redskins' defense, for crying out loud. The Seahawks also have the benefit of learning from the Colts' and the Broncos' mistakes. Seattle's offense should be able to score.

Will the Seahawks' defense be able to stop the Steelers' offense for four quarters? The answer is maybe, and not as unlikely as the first one. Yes, Big Ben is really good, especially for a second-year QB. And the Steelers' running game is one of the top five in the league. But Seattle's defense is excellent against the run, and pressuring (and sacking) QB's. Seattle's weakness, as we have all heard three hundred times from talking heads on tv and radio, is their secondary. But that's looking at season statistics that don't take into account how much healthier the secondary is now than it was in the regular season. This is tough to say, and because it's tougher to say than the first one, the Steelers will need their advantage in special teams to come through in a big way, or a fortuitous fumble or two, or a no-show by the Seahawks (like the Broncos and Bears pulled). You can't really take those into consideration except as "gut feelings," and I only do that during the regular season (remember Green Bay over Atlanta).

So I feel I must pick the Seahawks over the Steelers, 26-24.

Backlog Bob

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